Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.007479 0.008433 0.009477 0.010707 0.012119 0.013694 0.015587
2024-10-13 0.006219 0.007571 0.009183 0.011260 0.013880 0.017097 0.021380
2024-10-20 0.005158 0.006591 0.008397 0.010862 0.014170 0.018505 0.024691
2024-10-27 0.004455 0.005917 0.007842 0.010595 0.014484 0.019861 0.027997
2024-11-03 0.004020 0.005521 0.007574 0.010634 0.015157 0.021720 0.032195
2024-11-10 0.003791 0.005370 0.007608 0.011074 0.016419 0.024540 0.038188
2024-11-17 0.003436 0.004994 0.007268 0.010907 0.016727 0.025927 0.042093
2024-11-24 0.003188 0.004746 0.007086 0.010947 0.017340 0.027838 0.047103
2024-12-01 0.002914 0.004431 0.006765 0.010723 0.017482 0.028965 0.050882
2024-12-08 0.002771 0.004305 0.006724 0.010943 0.018381 0.031474 0.057512
2024-12-15 0.002597 0.004112 0.006556 0.010926 0.018855 0.033271 0.063048
2024-12-22 0.002357 0.003791 0.006149 0.010453 0.018454 0.033403 0.065291
2024-12-29 0.002202 0.003607 0.005965 0.010376 0.018808 0.035070 0.071097
2025-01-05 0.002161 0.003613 0.006111 0.010914 0.020399 0.039386 0.083364
2025-01-12 0.001981 0.003362 0.005782 0.010529 0.020132 0.039891 0.087216
2025-01-19 0.001838 0.003166 0.005533 0.010272 0.020088 0.040853 0.092286
2025-01-26 0.001749 0.003060 0.005440 0.010310 0.020656 0.043203 0.101130
2025-02-02 0.001717 0.003055 0.005536 0.010734 0.022095 0.047691 0.116221
2025-02-09 0.001615 0.002913 0.005357 0.010573 0.022232 0.049197 0.123805
2025-02-16 0.001545 0.002826 0.005277 0.010612 0.022819 0.051850 0.135044
2025-02-23 0.001453 0.002688 0.005087 0.010396 0.022789 0.052980 0.142180
2025-03-02 0.001412 0.002650 0.005093 0.010608 0.023797 0.056864 0.158229
2025-03-09 0.001352 0.002567 0.005001 0.010591 0.024246 0.059367 0.170625